At Fieldays 2026, Dragonfly Data Science exhibited as part of the MPI Forestry Hub to demonstrate how satellite imagery and AI can help landowners with forestry management.
As New Zealand farmers consider long-term land use decisions under the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS), questions around risk, return, and certainty are becoming increasingly central.
However, satellite mapping provides an innovative way of making environmental and carbon data more accessible at farm level - turning complex spatial information into practical decision-making tools.
Turning satellite data into land-use insight
Dragonfly has spent several years working in the satellite mapping space, including a recent partnership with NASA to map every tree in New Zealand.
The work uses satellite imagery and machine-learning to estimate factors such as forest height, density, condition, and carbon storage potential - providing a more detailed picture of land than traditional assessment methods ever could have in the past.
For Dr Finlay Thompson, the value lies in reducing uncertainty at the point where decisions are being made.
“Farmers need certainty, not guesswork,” says Finlay. “New satellite and AI tools now allow us to monitor forests at a scale and level of detail that simply wasn’t possible a few years ago.”
“As carbon markets mature, measurement and credibility are becoming increasingly important.You can’t manage or monetise what you can’t accurately measure.”
ETS decisions under increasing pressure
The ETS is designed to reward landowners with carbon credits for forestry that removes carbon from the atmosphere. But participation also requires navigating long-term financial, environmental, and regulatory considerations.
Farmers must weigh up factors including return on investment, cashflow timing, succession planning, and liability risks if forests are harvested or damaged. Recent policy changes restricting farmland-to-forestry conversion have added further complexity.
“The challenge is not a lack of opportunity, but a lack of clarity,” says Finlay. “Landowners need a clear understanding of the potential their land holds.”
“The ETS won’t make sense for everyone, but for some farmers it represents a significant opportunity - particularly for land that is less viable for traditional farming.”
“In many cases, planting is complementary, improving erosion control, creating additional income streams, or making use of unproductive land.”
New Zealand has around 3 million hectares of Class 7 or 8 land, which is poorly suited to intensive agriculture. For some landowners, this represents a long-term opportunity for native regeneration or carbon forestry - but only if it can be measured accurately and consistently.
Bringing satellite intelligence to Fieldays
Fieldays remains the country’s largest agricultural event, and provides a key opportunity to engage directly with farmers and foresters navigating ETS decisions in real time.
At the MPI Forestry Hub, Dragonfly showcased how satellite mapping and AI tools can support more transparent and practical forestry decision-making - including how forest carbon can be assessed at scale before land-use decisions are made.
The aim is to bridge the gap between scientific modelling and on-farm decision-making, particularly in a policy environment that continues to evolve.
“Forestry is a 30-to-50-year decision,” says Finlay. “So farmers need confidence that both the data and the systems around carbon will remain robust enough to support that investment.”
“There are significant opportunities here in Aotearoa. As carbon markets evolve, access to accurate, long-term data is essential for better land-use decisions.”
He says that Fieldays is a prime chance every year to share this expertise, but that equally, the value of the event comes from creating conversations with landowners and other industry groups, to get a stronger sense of the experiences, needs and opportunities in this space.
Read more:
- The Post: Satellite imagery crucial for forestry and ETS decision-making
- The Press: Satellite mapping crucial for ongoing ETS system adoption
- Waikato Times: Farmers need certainty, not guesswork